Forecast Bias

The consistent direction of forecast error.

Bias reveals systematic over- or under-forecasting that quietly builds excess or stockouts.

Forecast exceeded actuals by 6% over the quarter, a positive bias of 6%.

Sustained positive bias builds inventory; sustained negative bias erodes service.

Review override behavior, remove incentive-driven adjustments, and re-fit statistical models.

Treating bias as noise because absolute error looks acceptable.